Globally Rational

Yesterday, I outlined the best possible sequence of events that could follow from Israel’s recent prisoner exchange with Hezbollah. The best-case scenario required some forward thinking from the educated part of the population, which would (hopefully) eventually start to promote tolerance. However, here is what will happen if even the educated people let their emotions supersede their rationality (which seems pretty common for enemies):

• May/June 2008: Israel works out a prisoner exchange with Hezbollah (done).
• The next few months: The public, both Israelis and Palestinians, openly resent that their side is negotiating with the enemy.
• The next year or two: Public resentment makes it more difficult for politicians to justify any sort of communication between the two sides.
• The next 3-4 years: Violence continues as usual and open political talks become a distant memory. Public opinion remains irrationally heated.
• The next decade or so: Communication is impossible; each side’s general public sentiment is that the other side needs to be simply eradicated.
• Another 10-20 years later: One of the two sides achieves its goal of killing enough people so that the enemy is forced to abandon their homes.

Of course, we don’t want this scenario to come true. Whoever wins, the end result is bad. That’s why I think that the only solution to the problem is through education… Americans need to be educated about the world, locals need to be educated about tolerance, and everybody needs to learn that it’s really not that hard to live in harmony.

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